Moving Average
Oscillators
One of the most common
types of oscillators measures the difference between two
moving averages. When the moving averages are further apart, but now the
short-term average is below the long-term average. The
oscillator becomes zero when the two moving averages cross.
Some of the trading rules
or uses for oscillators are:
Buy when the oscillator
crosses the zero line, changing from a negative to a positive
value. Sell when the oscillator crosses the zero line,
changing from a positive to a negative value. These
rules are the same as buying or selling when the moving
averages cross, so the results are similar.
2. Buy when the oscillator
becomes oversold. Sell when the oscillator becomes
overbought. A market is considered overbought when the
oscillator value reaches extremely high levels. A market
is considered oversold when the oscillator value reaches
extremely low levels.
How high must the
oscillator be for an overbought reading, and how low for
an oversold reading? An oscillator measures absolute
amounts, so 100 may be overbought in the Treasury bond
market, but may be insignificant in another market. Each
market will have different values, depending on the
price and volatility of the commodity. The trader must
determine what values constitute overbought and oversold
by reviewing the oscillator for the particular market.
The same market may have a large variation in oscillator
values over time. Some traders may use 100, and others
may use 75, while others may use 50 or lower as an
overbought condition.
This type of method is
called counter trend trading because buying occurs on
market weakness, and selling on market strength. This
type of trading works well when markets are congested,
but is less than a pleasurable experience when markets
trend.
3. Oscillators may also be
used to confirm or not confirm a trend. A divergence
occurs when the market makes new highs but the
oscillator does not or the market makes new lows but the
oscillator does not. For example the oscillator drops
below -124 in the beginning of August and makes a higher
low near -24 at the end of August. The bonds make a low
in early August below 90 and then resume the downtrend
bottoming out below 87 during the same interval in
August. The oscillator does not make new lows during the
same time and therefore does not confirm this new price
low. This is an example of a bullish divergence. This
might suggest the market is developing internal strength
and may be ready for a rally. A bearish divergence would
occur when the market rallies and makes new highs but
the oscillator does not make new highs suggesting
possible internal weakness.
An oscillator confirms a
move when the market makes new highs (lows) and the
oscillator makes new highs (lows). For example in the
middle of December the oscillator reaches a high of 100
and then makes a lower high in the beginning of January
around 16. The market makes a high the same time in
December near 98 and then makes a lower high
near 97. The oscillator confirms the lower high
suggesting the market may possibly head lower.
A line oscillator
is a
simple moving average of the moving average
oscillator values (ie. a moving average of an
oscillator),
Moving averages are used
to smooth data, as mentioned in the moving average
section. A line oscillator smoothes the data to a
greater degree, since it is a moving average of the
difference of two moving averages. A line oscillator can
be employed in a similar fashion as the moving average
oscillator. A five- and ten-day line oscillator.
The moving average
convergence divergence (MACD), is similar to the line
oscillator, but is calculated with an exponential moving
average instead of a simple moving average.