A simple moving average
is
the average of a series of prices
during a specified period.
Moving averages, or variations, on a
theme are some of
the most widely used technical trading studies, and
therefore, deserve a good understanding of their
construction and use.
A moving average can be
calculated on any time period such as a daily, weekly,
or minute basis. One reason for using a moving average
is to reduce some of the noise inherent in the
shorter-term movements, and better depict the major
trend of the market. This process, called smoothing the
data, is often done in statistics to allow for easier
analysis of all types of data.
The longer the number of days
in the moving average, the smoother the moving average
line. However, there is a
danger in smoothing too much data over too long a time
frame because many important short-term price
fluctuations, such as seasonal patterns, may be lost in
the smoothing process.
A moving average greater than
one day (a one-day moving average is the same as the
daily price activity) will move less quickly than the
daily price. Later we will see how this phenomena is the
curse and blessing of using moving averages for trading.
Moving averages always seem to be either too fast or too
slow. All kinds of periods may be used, but one of the
most popular combinations is the 4-, 9-, and 18-day
moving average.