Trading systems designed
with moving averages are generally trend following
systems. Trend-following trading systems are designed to
catch a trend in the
market, so the methods often generate buy signals when the market is
going up, and sell signals when the market is going
down. This is called buying the market on strength, and
selling the market on weakness. Three of the more
commonly known rules for moving averages are:
1. Buy when the market
closes above the moving average or combination of
averages. Sell when the market closes below the moving
average or combination of averages.
These rules usually
provide the greatest number of whipsaws, which can be
especially apparent in congestion type markets when even a small move will
generate a signal. Therefore, the better entry and exit
levels come with a tradeoff of more false signals and
losing trades.
2. Buy when the short-term
moving average crosses above the long-term moving
average. Sell when the short-term moving average crosses
below the long-term moving average.
These rules usually do not
generate as many trades and, therefore, may promise
fewer false breakouts. However, the entry and exit
levels will usually be worse than in the first set of
rules.
3. Buy when the short- and
long-term moving averages both point up. Sell when the
short- and long-term moving averages point down.
These rules are similar to
the second set and the same ideas apply.
You may notice the above
rules would have a position in the market an the time.
Such trading systems are caned stop and reversal systems
because the position is stopped out and reversed,
leaving the trader always in the market. The rationale
behind this type of system is that the trader is always
in a position to catch a big move.
Should a trader have a
position in the market all the time? The answer to this
question is dear to some and uncertain to others. Some
people adamantly believe it is necessary to always
maintain a position in the market to be certain of
catching a major move. Other traders wait for times and
markets they believe to be optimal for their type of
trading.
Do
not be deceived into thinking you will catch every move
if you always have a position in the market. You may
have a position, but it could be on the wrong side and
may prove quite costly. For example, being long July 91
platinum in May, proved 10 be costly when the market
opened lower near the 370 level near the end of May.
Going short at that point did not help much either as
the market rallied from the 370 level. Sometimes it is
best to simply sit on the sidelines when trading,
because markets do not always trend and can be quite
random or trend less at limes.