Volume and open interest
can be used with price data to confirm a market move.
The general rules are:
These
rules are based on the belief that volume drives the
market. If the market is moving in a certain direction,
high volume and open interest confirm strong momentum in
the direction the market is moving. In the opposite
case, movement without much volume and open interest
suggests a lack of interest, or substance to the move.
The idea is interesting
but volume and open interest data can be tricky to
actually use. The trader must decide whether to use the
total contract amount or the individual contract amount.
The total contract amount includes all the contracts
traded, whereas the individual contract amount is the
amount for each single contract month. Volume and open
interest for a specific contract can shift dramatically
in one day, because some markets change the active
trading month on one day. Front and back months (near-
and long-term expirations) are often related by interest
rate levels. In these cases, it is usually better to use
total volume and open interest figures.
Other
markets change the volume and open interest amounts
gradually. Some back months exhibit behavior unlike the
front months, so figures for one contract month are not
related to another contract month. In this case, it is
better to use the individual figures for each month.
ON BALANCE VOLUME
Joseph
Granville developed the On Balance Volume (OBV)
Indicator for the stock market, but it has been applied
to futures trading. The OBV attempts to measure the
influence of both price and volume on the market. It is
calculated by adding the volume of the day if the price
change for the day is positive, and subtracting volume
of the day if the price change is negative. A cumulative
total of the volume is kept and plotted against the
price. If the OBV is rising, then this confirms an up
move, but if it is dropping, a potential down move is
possible.