A Second Look at Volatility
Since volatility plays such an important role in trading and evaluating
options it will be helpful to look at the
different kinds of volatility:
-
Historical volatility:
The actual volatility
that the market has traded in the past. This is the
easiest to determine, although the historical can
vary greatly depending on the time frame used.
-
Seasonal
volatility: Many commodities
sometimes exhibit seasonal tendencies, becoming
more volatile at certain times and less volatile
at other times of the year.
-
Implied
volatility: The volatility
derived from the option price and the Black
Scholes or equivalent model. This is the actual
market volatility of the option. Some traders
consider the implied volatility to be a good
estimate of future market volatility or the best
estimate of current volatility.
-
Predicted
volatility: The volatility
the trader believes the market will trade in the
future. This is not the same as the implied but
is the volatility a trader will use in the
options evaluation model.
-
Future volatility: This is the
volatility the market will actually trade at in
the future and is not only the most important,
but also the hardest to know.