The
popular head and shoulders formation. The left and
right shoulder are defined by similar highs and
lows. The center top or head is higher than either
shoulder. A sale may be initiated when the neckline
is broken. An inverse head and shoulders would yield
a possible buy at the neckline. A head and shoulders
pattern may be a continuation pattern, so it is
usually best to wait for a breakout from the
neckline. Once the neckline is broken, and a sell
initiated, the shoulders may be used as the
protective buy stop level. In an inverse head and
shoulders formation, a protective sell stop could be
placed at the shoulders if a buy occurs at the
neckline.
Head
and shoulders: This formation develops when a left top
is followed by a higher center top and a lower right top
with similar bottoms.
The
V bottom or top is a common pattern is difficult to
trade because no prior support or resistance level is
established before the top or bottom. Where would you go
long or short the market in this pattern, or where
should a protective stop be placed? There is only one
reference point of support in a bottom and resistance in
a top; so it is hard to determine good entry or exit
points.
A
double top and bottom are the line drawn off the two
highs of a double top provides a strong resistance
level. The low between the two tops is an important
support level, so a break below this level may indicate
lower prices. A protective buy stop may be placed at the
resistance line. The reverse holds true for a double
bottom. The line drawn off the two lows on a double
bottom indicates a good support level. The high between
the two lows is an important resistance level, so a
break above this area may indicate higher prices. A
protective sell stop may be placed at the support line.
There
are many other types of patterns, but they are often
variations on the previously mentioned ones. Some
technicians believe certain patterns have predictive
value, while others trade most patterns as consolidation
phases, where the market is waiting to break out on one
side or the other.
When
trading, it is often much easier to look for simple
consolidation patterns than to search for exact
formations which are more often an idea than a reality.
Even when the exact pattern is found, there is still no
guarantee the market will trade in the way It is
"supposed to." You are far better off trying to
understand the dynamics behind a pattern than memorizing
the exact rules of a formation and being able to see one
clearly in hindsight.
The
previous examples showed some common formations and
resulting profitable trades. Many traders become
frustrated in using chart patterns because the signals
do not always yield profitable trades. No chart
formations will always provide winning trades, but the
trader should not be searching for patterns which work
100% of the time. A more realistic goal of the trader is
to find patterns that have a reasonable chance of
yielding profitable trades.
Many
technicians have somewhat precise and specific rules
about trading each pattern. However, the patterns are
inherently subjective, so it is better to know the
fundamental ideas of why a pattern might work. Then the
trader can observe the standard patterns, and create new
ones which will help in developing more insight into
trading them.