Support
and resistance lines are the next step in
determining support and resistance levels on a
chart. A support line is obtained by drawing a line
through two support points, while a resistance line
is drawn through two resistance points. The two
kinds of support and resistance lines which serve
two different purposes are:
1. Horizontal support
and resistance lines identify important price levels
in the market. A horizontal support line drawn
through support points, and is an example of a
resistance line drawn through resistance points.
2. Diagonal support
and resistance lines are drawn to portray the trend
of the market. An example of a diagonal support line
drawn through two support points, and is an example
of a resistance line drawn through two resistance
points.
HORIZONTAL SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LINES
Horizontal
support and resistance lines are drawn to identify
important price levels of resistance and support in
the market. These lines help the trader anticipate
where support or resistance levels may develop in
the future. The Dow 3000 level is a good example of
a resistance level. The lower weekly chart shows how
the market develops resistance at the 3000 level in
July 1990, and then sells off until the beginning of
1991. In the upper daily graph, the market rallies
strongly in February, but hits a "brick wall" at the
3000 level again in March and April.
The
2850 level on the Dow is an example of a significant
support level. The market finds continuous strong
support at this level in February, March, April, and
May. Strong buying emerges at the 2850 level because it
may represent an area where investors view stocks as
being cheap, relative to alternative investments such as
bonds or cash. Heavy selling occurred in the 3000 level
as investors became cautious, believing the market was
overvalued at this level.
In
between the most significant horizontal trend lines of
long term highs and lows are many intermediate levels of
support and resistance. For example, the price of crude
oil tended to gravitate in the 1980's to OPEC's
benchmark level of $18.00 a barrel. If oil was trading
around $20.00 a barrel, the $18.00 level was considered
support, and might stop or slow any initial price
decline. If oil was trading around $16.00 a barrel, the
$18.00 level was considered resistance, and might impede
any initial price rise.
The
May 89 crude oil rise in December and January, and then
find resistance from "out of the blue" in the middle of
January at the $18.00 level. The October 90 contract
finds important support in the $18.00 level in late
November, early December, and again in June.
Some
horizontal support and resistance lines may often
identify significant fundamental price levels in the
commodity. For example, a horizontal support line may
represent an important fundamental price level, such as
the cost of production of the commodity. A long-term
horizontal resistance line for a commodity may be a
price level where cheaper alternative commodities will
begin to replace the higher priced commodity. The Dow
3000 level might have been considered a fundamental
area, where investors felt stocks were too expensive
versus other investments. The $18.00 level in crude oil
might represent an area where suppliers increase or
decrease supply, or where consumer demand increases or
decreases, depending on the level of the market.