Technical analysis
is the study of past market behavior to
determine the current state or condition of the market.
The
technician looks at patterns of market behavior and then
observes how the market reacts in these patterns. The
technician then waits for a similar pattern to recur to
see if the market reacts in a similar way. This enables
the technician to determine what may happen to the
market in the future. It is not much different than a
doctor looking for symptoms or behavior patterns, to
check the condition of a patient.
Technical
analysis
can be
used
in
both a
reactive or predictive way to analyze the market.
In either case a
technical trader observes the behavior of the market to
detect its condition.
A
reactive
method is one where the person responds to a situation.
An example of a reactive system is our reflex system.
Upon touching a hot surface we might react by
immediately pulling our finger away. A predictive method
is one where the person tries to anticipate what may
happen in the future. After knowing a surface is hot, we
may predict that touching it will cause a burn, so we
now avoid it.
When
technical analysis is used in a reactive way, a trader
watches the market and then responds to it by buying or
selling at the appropriate time. An example of trading
in a reactive way is by buying or selling a breakout
from a consolidation formation, such as a rectangle. A
trader may either buy if the market goes above the
previous highs, or sell if the market goes below the
previous lows, but does not make a trade until then. In
this way, the trader is not always trying to predict the
market, but instead, react to it. Again, this is no
different than the doctor recommending a prescription if
the patient should exhibit a certain behavior.
Some
technicians employ technical analysis in a predictive
manner. The technician will monitor market behavior and
then try to predict market action. May using cycle
theory to predict a bottom and potential buying
opportunity. If the bottoms continue in a similar
pattern we have a good indication of where and when the
next bottom will appear. The technician, through
studying the cycles of a market, is attempting to
predict a bottom or top in the market. Various studies
in cycle theory and wave analysis are examples of ways
of trying to predict market behavior.