If Trading System are so good, Why give away a secret?
Traders often wonder why anyone would want to sell a good trading system
to the public. The amount of money the developer of
the system could make from trading the signals would
potentially be so much more than the relatively
small amount of money received from the sale of the
system. Other traders are concerned with the effect
of revealing the secret rules of the system to the
public, which could possibly ruin the performance of
the system. These are some of the reasons that many
traders are skeptical about mechanical trading
systems.
There
are people selling products of dubious benefit to
the public but this happens in any business, not
just in the trading industry. There are definitely
some bad trading systems which will not make money,
and others whose secret is not far from the fairly
well known and simple moving average systems. It is
also true some methods have
become so well known that the system has lost its
effectiveness for a variety of reasons. For example,
widely followed trading methods can produce a
bunching of stop orders at the same price level,
which can lead to terrible fills. Another problem
with a system becoming too popular is that if too
many people use the system, the signals will tend to
lose their validity.
There are good trading systems
which are
developed by sincere people who mayor may not choose
to trade them. Some people are good theorists but do
not apply the theory well. A close analogy occurs in
science. Physicists work in a theoretical world and
think about all kinds of ideas, but do not usually
apply the ideas to real world applications. The
engineer works with the theoretical idea of the
physicist and applies it to practical use. The same
may hold true in trading. System developers may
create good trading systems, but they may not be
able to trade them for many reasons. Traders must be
practical, and may be able to apply the ideas of the
system developer to the market.